Comments on: (Way) Outside the WSOP – Main Event Day 3

By: DanM

DanM — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:36:53 +0000

i’m saying if the bubble bursts at any time during level 14 (or sooner) … that would be the under. at any point in level 15 (or later) … that’s the over.

By: BJ Nemeth

BJ Nemeth — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:31:11 +0000

You need to clarify what Level 14.5 means. Does that mean halfway through Level 14, or does that mean 14 complete levels, plus half of Level 15?

Basically, is it Level 14.5, or 14.5 levels?

By: DanM

DanM — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:55:42 +0000

I’ll take the over on Level 14.5 today.

I’m starting to see your point on the Day 1/Day 2 adjustments … but I still think there’s a bigger logistics issue in play. We’ll see if a floor guy can’t learn me more on what that issue really was.

By: Kevin Mathers

Kevin Mathers — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:53:17 +0000

Agreed on that BJ.

By: BJ Nemeth

BJ Nemeth — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:43:35 +0000

There isn’t a problem combining after nine levels, but the point is that there isn’t a problem combining after *10* levels. So why cut Days 1a and 1b short?

If the conspiracy theorists want to claim it keeps players around the Rio longer, that’s fine, but then you have to play the same four levels on Days 1c and 1d. But they couldn’t do that, because those days were so full, they needed to get the field down to a manageable size for Day 2b.

Even if there were only 1,000 players in the Main Event, you could still play five levels on Day 1 and five levels on Day 2. The money will always be about 10% of the field, and you won’t reach that number in ten levels — ever, ever, ever.

Moral of the Story: Stick to the schedule on Day 1.

By: DanM

DanM — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:40:14 +0000

We should set an over-under on what level they’ll be reaching the money.

I still don’t see a problem, though, with two flights of players converging after 9 levels each.

By: BJ Nemeth

BJ Nemeth — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:30:11 +0000

And this is why I said it was ludicrous to think they’d be reaching the money in the first ten levels, which is why it was ludicrous to play only four levels on Days 1a and 1b.

You don’t lose 90% of the field in ten levels with a Main Event-style structure. Here we are wondering whether or not we’re going to lose 90% of the field in fourteen levels.

By: Kevin Mathers

Kevin Mathers — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:09:21 +0000

I don’t see it happening myself, but when they get to say 700 players will be a factor.

By: DanM

DanM — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:06:47 +0000

There’s some buzz amongst players (and media) that they might not get to the money tonight. Considering how slow things move once they do get near the bubble, it will be interesting to see what develops toward the end of the day.