LAS VEGAS–Ray in Chicago writes in because Pokerati’s circuitry currently forces him to (the internet elves should have us fully rewired by Thursday Friday):

Hi Dan Presented by Milwaukee’s Best Light,

I wanted to comment about your financial situation but comments still not working. So here goes.

1) You’ve only played 5 cash games in over 2 weeks?
2) Let’s do the math. $32 / $2400 buy-ins or 1.33% profit. Is that good? $32 / 16 hours or $2 per hour profit. Actually, the question is how does your buy-in affect your expectation?

Do you base your profit expectation as a player on table limits and time played or buy-in and time played or something else?

Uncle Ray.

Thanks for writing in, Uncle Ray. Yes, five cash games. It’s a long World Series. And #2 kinda answers #1. While 16 hours is hardly an adequate sample set, for a break-even player (or even slightly-winning) in low-stakes games, playing poker is not necessarily a great investment of time. The buy-in stat may be a little misleading, because I did not include (for public viewing) info about any rebuys. I am very comfortable losing my first standard buy-in in any game — mostly confident I’ll get it back — less comfortable after two. As to “profit expectation” … I don’t know these terms you talk about. That’s kinda what I’m trying to figure out.

LAS VEGAS–The most common question I hear here at the WSOP is, How many people do you think will be playing in the main event? “Howya doin’?”

Fine, thanks.

Dan’s 2007 WSOP Gaming Bankroll

So far so good. At poker itself, after five sessions of $1/$2, $1/$3, and $2/$5 … I am up $32. (A little more if you include my first try at casino Omaha.) Kinda amazing considering that comes from $2,400 in buy-ins and 16 hours of play. The maroon areas show wins or losses — and what they either add or subtract from the overall stack, represented in blue. Most of the swelling so far has come from truer gambling. Had a nice run in blackjack, hit quad aces on 25-cent video poker, and am kicking some serious ass in a who-pays-the-tab game called 1-to-1000. Chance-based bar and restaurant prop bets seem to be my strength.

Click here to see some more specific data behind the semi-pretty picture above.

I played in the $25,000 Bellagio main event last week, qualifying via my second $2,500 satellite. What an event! Nearly all of the best players in the world played. Starting the third day, I had 227,000 chips, which was about 70,000 above average. I got busted out of the 639 player field with 150 players remaining. Upon busting, I asked the cocktail waitress for a glass of Drano, easy on the ice.

Here is where I went wrong: Before I started the day, I should have established that day’s goal. What should the goal have been? Oh, I don’t know…how about make the money idiot! You paid $5,000 to get in and 100th place paid $46,000. If I make the money, I can then change my strategy. I played too many hands and was trying to get a little too bluffy, kinda like when Dan gets a little drinky. Needless to say, the moral of the story is, decide what you want to have happen and work toward that goal.

My good friend Mike Wattel came in 6th in the event, cashing in about $300,000. What a joke! Here’s my beef:

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Just kidding Mr. Taxy-tax man!

Bundas in Dallas writes in wondering about how sponsorship and backing works for big events … and also has me wondering if Pokerati should open up a forum. (Any volunteers to moderate?)

Perhaps looking for someone to rip him a new one, Bundas says:

OK Dan I’m sending this to you and hopefully you can pass on to all the pokerati writers or create a post and get each of there thoughts.

There is no way for me to post and have them respond but I would love to see what how each would answer.

OK in a recent posts I brought up the idea of Pokerati sponsoring me at the Holdem Radio live Event. I really was only kidding as that event is only $310.00 and I know there are no real funds at Pokerati for sponsorships.

I was listening to Holdem Radio last night and the subject of sponsorships for tournaments came up. Susie Isaacs brought up the point that she does not use her own money in the big events for example $5000.00 or above, she gets sponsors or backers.

Can you please have Tom Schneider or Michele Lewis our resident Pro’s explain what they do in regards to sponsorships or backers (Dan and Karridy could also give there opinions here)?

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Thanks for the idea Jason.

Do you play in a casino, home game or online? Do you want to move up the poker ladder? This is what I think is important about moving up in each case:

Home games are the easiest to beat. If you are beating a home game regularly, don’t get too excited yet. You still have some work. If you are playing a 3-6 limit game at someone’s house vs. a casino, you don’t have to overcome the rake. Imagine coming to my house to play a $3-$6 game, and I tell you that after 10 hours, someone will be winning $600 and it won’t be you. That’s pretty tough when most people buy in to a $3-$6 game for $100. If you have 9 players, there’s only $900 available less the $600 drop, less the $100 you started with. That leaves only $200 to spread around the other 8 players. If you are breaking even in your home game, stay right there, Dan. Sklansky has written some excellent stuff on this topic and this might even be his example.

Casino poker games, in my opinion, are much tougher than home games and not just because of the rake …

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I’ve been much better about keeping track of my bankroll this year, thanks to Pokercharts.com — even though, thus far, it hasn’t been a winning year. Kinda interesting.

Just tonight/last night … I had a pretty good session (ended up +$485 in $.50/$1 NLH) … though half of that came from the last hand of the night, where Fawcett flopped a mini-monster … which he played a little weakly trying to trap me … which fueled my bluff-draw, and in the end let me hit the nuts with a gutshot. Cool. Even cooler was getting Fawcett to push all-in once I got there. Anyhow … have a looksie at my current bankroll graph:

Read into it whatever you want. And while these are important figures for me to keep track of, here’s what I think is the more telling graph:

Either you know something or you don’t — there is no in-between when it comes to knowing. And I think this map of my average earnings per session reveals something I hadn’t come to hard-and-provable grips with … and that is that I am pretty much just a break-even player. Semi-bitter pill to swallow, but hey, there’s no room in winning poker for delusions. Here is some other relevant computer-generated analysis of my 2007 play, as logged by Pokercharts. Kinda funny:

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I’ve returned from Vegas, by the way, and in the spirit of responsible gaming, here’s the day-by-day rundown of my action at the tables:

Saturday
Caesar’s WPBT Winter Classic -$130
Caesar’s 1/2 NL -$200
Caesar’s 2/5 NL -$500

Sunday
Binion’s $5 Blackjack +$60
UPC Main Event -$340*
Binion’s $10 Blackjack +$105

Monday
Venetian 1/2 NL +$370

Tuesday
Red Rock 1/2 NL +$1,020
Bellagio $1 Video Poker +$10
Bellagio $25 Pai Gow -$275*

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Total: +$715

* Played with backing from someone else

Hmm, OK, so interesting. Let’s see … overall a good trip. But is it a coincidence that I went bust repeatedly on Saturday, a day that started with about three hours of sleep and a mondo hangover from a night of Tuaca-and-scotchy blog-revelry that culminated in a supposed offer to tongue Pauly’s low-hanging sack? Duly noted.

Also, I gotta say … after the Como-love UPC tourney and a Tom Schneider investment in my Pai Gow … I can attest that playing on other people’s dime is fun! Seriously, it’s much better than risking your own bankroll. With that in mind, er, hmm … it seems like I might want to pay more attention to providing better returns if I want to entertain more backing in the future.

I got a very kind email from Ed/Stan the other day, along with a copy of his bankroll-management graph. He apparently has done rather well at the microlimits with $20 he deposited on Titan (for the Pokerati Inaugural Online Invitational?). He says:

Just wanted to share with you my Aug sessions so far. I think I owe you and the friends who I have played/talked poker with over the last year. This is the best I have done yet and it has not even been a full month. The sessions were mixed too. Mostly .05/.10 PLH but I played a few .05/.10 NL, some SnGs and a couple $10 tournaments that I lost.

Here are the results of his sessions over time, with G/L meaning gain/loss, based on an individual session:

click to enlarge

Wow, very well done, Ed! Seriously, impressive slow-and-steady build — just like you’re supposed to do it. Not sure I deserve any credit, however, as you’ll see my final tally for table play during the WSOP looks similar, but different:

But hey, I guess that’s just “variance,” right?

ALT HED: Leading by (Bad) Example