Apparently our good friends across the pond are a bit more optimistic about the notion of the US opening its online gambling market in 2010 than we are … and in preparation, the buzz around England is that Betfair — the British online poker-and-more company and title sponsor of WSOP-Europe — is getting serious about making an estimated £1.5 billion ($2.5 billion) initial public offering.

The intent would be to raise capital in preparation for all sorts of crazy consolidation and forthcoming acquisitions in the online gambling sector.

At least one Betfair exec dismisses the talk as little more than speculation, despite meetings with Credit Suisse and other banking advisors that have the European financial press getting their knickers in a bunch as “companies seek to position themselves to enter the world’s biggest gambling market.” Should the rumored floatation happen, it would be the first major listing on the London Stock Exchange since the global economic collapse.

$400k HORSE

At the same time, Betfair last week made another move toward American soil by pledging $400,000 to the New York (Horse) Racing Association as an overlay should two specific horses face off against each other in October at Belmont Park:

Rachel Alexandra, the first filly to win the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown since 1924, has won her last eight races. Zenyatta is undefeated in 12 career starts, including the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.

LOL, I didn’t even realize they had ladies events in horse racing!

Across the Chunnel: Refashioning French Poker

Arnault.

Betfair also just got themselves approved to enter France’s online gambling market, which is set to open next year … apparently with some nice poker-friendly alterations to the rake. (The new French law originally had players paying tax on every bet and raise, on every street … which can totally screw with your pot-odds calculations!) Helping get Betfair to the front of the French licensing line, with a better rake structure no less? Heavy lobbying efforts from billionaire bling merchant Bernard Arnault, CEO of Louis Vuitton, 10 percent owner of Betfair, and the 15th richest person in the world.

New-and-improved Yahoo! Poker Coming Soon

We’re talking Yahoo! Uk & Ireland, of course, not Yahoo! USA. The British arm of the web behemoth just re-upped its partnership with GTech G2, for two years, to provide real-money gaming options — and part of that deal includes plans to unveil a fully downloadable real-money Yahoo! poker room, not just the (lame) in-browser version currently available.

Magazine Moguls Jump into Mobile Gambling

PartyGaming CEO Jim Ryan recently said that the biggest threat to established online gaming brands comes from major media outlets, not current competitors. And sure enough … Dennis Publishing — the mega-magazine company behind Maxim, MacUser, Computer Shopper, Bizarre, Men’s Fitness, and more than a dozen other publications (including PokerPlayer, Inside Poker Business, and Stacked) — just launched its Monkey Mobile Casino, offering real-money online gambling on handheld devices. (The current issue of Monkey, fwiw, features a picture of Lady Gaga’s recent nipple slip.

The Swedish Taxman Cometh

Meanwhile, the Swedish Tax Authority (Skatteverket) has been studying all forms of internet commerce tax evasion since 2007, and has concluded that online poker companies with offshore servers are one of their biggest sources of uncollected e-commerce taxes.

Our good friends at Betfair have released the betting lines — already moving — for the final table of the WSOP main event. Current market numbers:

Darvin Moon – 4.2
Eric Buchman – 5.8
Steven Begleiter – 7.2
Phil Ivey – 8
Jeff Shulman – 8
Joseph Cada – 16.5
Kevin Schaffel – 17.5
James Akenhead – 19
Antoine Saout – 21

Bodog’s lines are a tiny bit different, at least at the top:

Darvin Moon – 17/10
Eric Buchman – 3/1
Phil Ivey – 4/1
Jeff Shulman – 4/1
Steven Begleiter – 4/1
Joe Cada – 10/1
Kevin Schaffel – 12/1
Antoine Saout – 12/1
James Akenhead – 22/1

Am I the only one who thinks being chip leader is virtually a kiss of death?

The American Government recently froze over $30 Million belonging to online poker players, and now a payment processor is fighting back! Plus, the British betting company Betfair prepares to bring legal online gambling to the US!

The Brits, seen here assembling a house of cards (outside last week’s PokerPalooza) in the form of Parliament to promote the upcoming WSOP-Europe, clearly have a sense of humour:

Not to sound semi-terroristy, but so woulda loved to see the implosion of this structure, too!

It’s been a mixed week for European players at the WSOP. Things got off to a flying start in the $1,500 No Limit Hold’em tournament and the $3,000 No Limit Hold’em Triple Chance event. German players Joh Carsten ($1,500 NLHE) and Jörg Peisert ($3,000 NLHE Triple Chance) both took bracelets back to Germany with Deutschland über alles ringing in their ears. Carsten banked a $664,426 win whilst Peisert took a shade over $500,000 for his efforts.

The following events saw the Europeans go back into their shells somewhat. The $1,500 Seven Card Stud Hi/Lo saw Jack Rosenfeldt finish the event as the highest European player in 11thplace. Rosenfeldt banked a little over $9,000 for his efforts. England’s Steve Jelinek was down in 19th in an event dominated by Americans.

The case was much the same as the next few side events concluded. Americans dominated while the Europeans picked up the scraps. The $1,500 No Limit Hold’em event saw France’s David Jaoui as the highest European player in 8th place for $87,855, as 2817 players made eventual winner Tony Veckey, from Illinois, $673,276 richer.

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The first ever Caesars Cup is set to happen at the World Series of Poker Europe this year. The WSOPE (presented by Betfair) will offer four tournaments, and in the midst of it all will be the Caesars Cup, an invitation-only tournament to pit the Europeans against the Americans, on September 25.

Annette Obrestad is heading up the European team, and today at the Rio she made her first pick. Peter Eastgate will be joining her on the team, along with several other players to be announced, one of whom will win his/her way onto the team through a Betfair online poker leaderboard competition. Daniel Negreanu is the team leader for the Americas, and his first pick was announced by Jeffrey Pollack as Phil Ivey.

Annette Obrestad & Peter Eastgate v. Daniel Negreanu & Phil Ivey

Hard to place any bets at this point, considering many picks have yet to be made.

The Brits have notched up their third bracelet of the 2009 WSOP following the victory of John Kabbaj in the $10,000 World Championship Pot Limit Hold’em event. Kabbaj, known as “large” to his London poker pals, had already gone close in two previous events this year. An 8th and an 18th in the $2,500 Pot Limit Omaha/Hold’em and $5,000 Pot Limit Omaha events respectively saw Kabbaj “in the zone” and he capitalised on his good form by taking down the $10k Pot Limit Hold’em tournament for $633,335. Russia’s Kirill Gerasimov was the unlucky runner up, for $391,369, in what was a European laden event. Davidi Kitai, from Germany took 4th place for $183,638. Further down the money list saw Swedes Ken Lennaard and Thomas Pettersson in very creditable 13th and 14th places.

The bracelet ceremony for Kabbaj was somewhat marred during the playing of the national anthem. Organisers decided to play the Sex Pistol’s version of God Save the Queen instead of the normal British national anthem. Following complaints, Jeffery Pollack apologised to Kabbaj and a new ceremony, with the correct anthem, was hastily arranged.

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Twenty-seven events are already in the books at the 2009 World Series of Poker and, so far, European players are having one of their best Series’ to date. As you might expect, it is the Americans that are dominating the majority of events but we’ve seen some spectacular results from British and European players.

The 2009 WSOP started in earnest with the $40,000 buy in No Limit Hold’em Anniversary event back on May 28th. Vitaly Lunkin, from Russia, took the honours and a $1,891,018 pay day after fighting his way past a plethora of world famous poker players. Lunkin has been in red hot form in 2009 and his victory brings his WSOP bracelet tally up to two following his success in the $1,500 No Limit Hold’em event here last year.

UK players have been enjoying a great Series so far. According to the Pokerati 2009 WSOP Standings table players from the UK have made 72 cashes, 9 final tables and won 2 bracelets to date.

So who are the British bracelet winners? It was JP Kelly that was first to register on the WSOP bracelet radar. Kelly, despite his baby-face looks, has been a regular on the international poker circuit for a while now but he has been suffering a dry spell of late. With only two cashes in 2009, it was unlikely John Paul went into the $1,500 Pot Limit Hold’em event on June 9th brimming with confidence. What a difference a tournament can make! Kelly took command of the final table with a power-packed display of aggressive poker like a player who has a sock drawer full of WSOP bracelets at home. Despite Erik Seidel (7th) in menacing mood and, fellow Brit’, Aaron Virchis (5th) looking dangerous there was simply no way Kelly was going to be denied the title and a $194,343 win. Credit should also go to second place player Marc Tschirch, from Germany, who pressed Kelly all the way in the heads-up stages.

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Been gathering a few gems over the past week…

Lawsuits are so easy and fun. Well, ask Clonie and she might deliver a different response, but that hasn’t stopped the lawyers in other cases from filing some very poker-centric lawsuits.

Gambling Times Inc. has filed suit against Scott Lazar, executive producer of Deal, the almost-embarrassing poker movie that flopped (pun inevitable) in movie theaters in 2008. According to super reputable tabloid TMZ, Gambling Times Inc. was promised prominent product placement in the film, and for the lack of it is suing Lazar for $1 million, about ten times more than what the movie garnered in revenue.

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Frequently in tournament poker you will encounter players who are re-raising your opens at an inappropriate frequency.

At the lower stakes they tend to re-raise too little, either trying to fold to cash or just call and play passive pots without the momentum of a raise or a strong hand. As you rise up the stakes though, you will start to encounter players who re-raise too much, and against these players you must be prepared to make one of the boldest plays in poker – the re-re-steal.

“If pulled off correctly it can help someone hugely chip up and push on for the win, if it goes wrong it can just look like a massive spew as someone loses a massive pot with a weak hand”

This play can only ever be effective if both players have enough chips that fold equity can be created, as there is no point making a big bluff like this if your opponent is pot committed by the bet; and should only be made against a player whom you know is capable of re-raising you with a lot less than premium hands.

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This is simply because the odds a player faces in limit hold’em are nearly always very good – and as a result folding too much is a much bigger mistake than calling too much (if you are getting ten to one odds you do not have to be right very often to show a profit making thin calls); this is the exact opposite of big bet poker, where calling too much will quickly bust you (you have to be much more confident about your hands strength when getting two to one or worse odds – as you have to be right a much higher percentage of the time).

“Always remember that limit is a game about extracting as much value from your hand as possible, and saving as many bets as you can when it looks like you are behind.”

As a result of this, many players brought up on big bet poker find limit an extraordinarily boring game when they first start learning the mechanics of it – the scope for advanced play making (and therefore a lot of the creative thought) is just much less in limit simply because it is so much harder to bluff. With most players now being brought up on big bet poker, many of the limit games (particularly the now popular mixed games) have become rather juicy in recent times, full of big bet players who try and bluff far too much.

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Heads up sit and goes provide a great opportunity for spinning up a bankroll to the beginner or play money player. The variance is very low in these games, as they combine many features which allow skill to shine through over the short term.

” …it is important to understand that heads up games will not give you that monster score of multi table tournaments, they will just give you a steady profit over the long run.”

The first point about these games is that heads up games require much more skill due to the massively increased number of decisions a player has to make. You can’t simply sit back and wait for big hands in this format – you have to be playing lots of hands in order to stop the blinds from eating you up, and this means that any edge you have is made significant much faster than in any other games, and your profits are made in a much more steady manner.

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Our good friends at Betfair have gotten in on their own version of the make-your-own-movie fun … with WSOP Europe final table interviews rendered in Lego art:

(Very funny that John Juanda is yellow … )

A ‘random walk’ is a mathematical term to describe looking at sequences of consecutive random events and observing the patterns.

A simple random walk can be built using just the flip of a coin. If we assign heads the number +1 and tails the number -1 and flip a coin 6 times we will have a number of possible results, ranging from the extreme results of +6 after five heads in a row, and -6 after five tails in a row; and including every other possible result in between, with the true odds lying at the number 0 (indicating an equal number of heads and tails). Mathematicians have done these sort of tests over hundreds, thousands and even millions of throws, and the results they give tell us an awful lot about poker strategy.

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Where in the world is Jamie Gold these days? Maybe he’s looking for the plethora of jobs that aren’t available in Hollywood. Could be that he’s trying to develop “America’s Unemployed Hot Chicks.” But in the world of poker, he does have a gig. Bankroll Boost is reporting that Gold has signed on as a sponsored player at Aced Poker.

Say what?

Good for Gold in finding a gig in these tough times. Honestly, kudos to anyone who is securing work instead of being on the unfortunate end of losing it right now. Maybe we’ll hear more about Aced Poker in the near future, if the site decides to promote him (which they have yet to do – Aced has no mention of him on the pages of its site thus far). And come to think of it, Betfair wasn’t big until it signed Annette Obrestad and Sorel Mizzi, and Cake Poker still hasn’t signed any players to a roster but continues to gain popularity. Aced Poker is clearly trying to work its way into the upper echelon of sites in the American market by signing a recognizable name to promote it. Keep your eyes open for “Aced is Gold” and other oh-so-clever promotions.