Online poker may be a difficult issue to either defend or fight in an election year. At least one hedge fund manager and one analyst are betting Congress will fail to act on online poker this year.

Rumors reached fever pitch last week that a bill to legalize and regulate online poker in the U.S. would be tacked on to legislation extending payroll tax cuts. Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV), however, denied the rumors on Thursday. Congress passed the payroll tax bill sans online poker legislation on Friday.

Poker players are all too familiar with gaming-related bills getting tacked on to other legislation. In 2006, the UIGEA was snuck on to the “must pass” Safe Port bill in the dead of night. Last week’s speculation gave full measure to the adage “turnabout is fair play.” 

But U.S. players (and casino interests alike) remain hopeful that online poker legislation is still in the cards for 2012 despite the false alarm and Wall Street’s long odds.