Image courtesy of World Poker Tour
In No Limit Texas Hold’em, pot odds matter a lot – much more than many players new to the game think.
It is a common trait in beginners that they hate calling bets when they think they’re likely to lose the pot, and they proceed to fold every single time, regardless of the bet they’re facing and the odds they’re getting.
However, what happens in any particular instance doesn’t matter. Poker is all about the long term, and the bet size you’re facing will have a massive impact on your strategy and your decisions.
Before we dive into this topic, one overarching theme of this article will be that, against small bets, you should be defending frequently and, as bets increase, your defense frequency should decrease.
Pot Odds Matter
In poker, pot odds indicate how much equity you need to realize to continue in the pot. To calculate this, you take the bet you’re facing and divide it by the bet you’re facing, plus your call amount, plus the current pot.
If you’re facing a 100% pot bet, you need to realize:
- 1 / (1+1+1) = 33% equity
When facing a smaller bet, like 25% pot, you only need 16.7% equity, and you’ll find that you get to defend a lot more hands when you need to win just 17% of the time.
For example, everyone folds to the button, and they go all in for 8BBs. You should call with 45% of hands in the big blind. Presuming your opponent is playing a good GTO strategy, you are getting good odds with this range.
If they only have five big blinds, you should call a lot wider – 77% of the hands, as you are getting much better pot odds. And so, against three big blinds, you should call with your entire range, i.e., 100% of your hands.
Utilizing Pot Odds on the Flop
Pot odds don’t matter just before the flop; they are just as relevant on the flop. As you are facing smaller bets, you should be defending wider.
Let’s look at an example to demonstrate this. We are playing 40 big blinds deep, the button raises, and big blind calls.
The flop comes A♠7♥6♦.
Big blind checks as they will with their entire range, and the button, who is playing good GTO strategy, bets the pot, indicating a stronger, polarized range.
In this scenario, the big blind raises only 2% of the time, calling with 36%, and folding 61% of their hands. There are many hands that simply aren’t doing well on this flop, so you’re mostly continuing with pairs and draws.
But what if they bet smaller, i.e., just 25% pot?
You should be continuing much wider and raising more often. You are raising at 18%, calling 42%, and folding 39%.
A8 off-suit and better, we can raise straight for value. Then, there are straight draws and a few more bluffs, primarily hands with backdoor equity and outs, like J♦8♦ or 9♦4♦, etc.
Many people will automatically fold a hand 9♦4♦ even against a tiny bet, but you must defend wide against these small bets, or the opponent will run you over.
As for our calling range, we are calling with a lot of king and queen highs, all queen jacks, and even some marginal hands like Q4 with backdoor flush draw.
We are still folding a lot (39%), because hands like QTo have no potential on this board.
Turn and River Play
Let’s continue with our example, assuming that the big blind check-called the button’s 25% pot continuation bet on the flop. The turn comes the Q♣.
Both players check on this street and go to the river that is 9♣ for the board of A♠7♥6♦Q♣9♣
After no action on the turn, the big blind takes over the betting lead and fires out for 100% of the pot.
How should the button defend in this situation? The GTO strategy is to raise 12% with very good hands and some bluffs, call 36%, and fold 52%.
The button is calling KQ, Ax that are still in their range after checking the turn, KK, T9, 98, some sevens like 87, etc.
We can raise with hands like 85 and T8 (rivered straights) for value. When it comes to bluffs, we want to have a card that makes it more difficult for the opponent to have a hand they’ll never fold (i.e., a straight). In this case, blocking an eight is an important card, so hands like 86 and T6 become good bluff candidates.
However, if the opponent bet only 25% pot with a much thinner value range, we are raising more often – 24%. Hands that we can raise for value are two pair holdings, KQ, Q9, and even Q8. These may seem weak, but we can do this because their small bet river range is very marginal.
The folding range here is only 22%. You are not supposed to fold a lot at all. Even many K-highs are finding calls (like KJ). Some small pocket pairs are folding, but we are calling with pretty much all other made hands.
Many players facing a river bet will call if they have something and fold otherwise. That’s not how poker works. As our opponents bet smaller, we need to call wider.
What if the opponent bets small for value to sucker you in? Well, that means their range contains no bluffs. Of course, if they are doing something exploitative like never bluffing when betting small, you can adjust by never calling.
Or, if they always bluff with small bets, you should call and raise much wider.
However, until you have a lot of information, presume they play well or at least that they have the tendencies that are common to the general player pool.
It’s good to adjust to your opponents and take advantage of their leaks, but, at the end of the day, pot odds matter, and, as bets get smaller, we need to call wider, as this is just basic math!
