While you can break it down in many different ways, poker is a game of mathematics at the end of the day. Knowing the poker odds and probabilities will make you a better player, while not knowing them will ensure you never leave the ranks of recreational poker players.
Regardless of how good your reads or sense for the game may be, understanding the basic poker odds is absolutely paramount for any success in the game.
This guide will teach you all you need to know about direct odds, pot odds, implied odds, and other mathematical concepts of infinite importance at the poker table.
Different Types of Odds in Poker
The term “poker odds” refers broadly to several important mathematical concepts in poker. These include:
- Direct Odds
- Pot Odds
- Implied Odds
- Reverse Implied Odds
The most commonly used among these is the concept of direct odds. These poker odds allow you to know the chances of your hand improving on later streets.
Direct poker odds are calculated based on poker outs, as each additional out improves your odds of upgrading to a better made hand.
Pot odds are used to calculate the “price” you are getting on a call when facing a bet. The smaller your opponent’s bet, the more likely you are to call with a wide range of hands due to pot odds.
Implied odds are used to calculate the amount of money you need to win on later betting streets when you aren’t quite getting the right price to call a bet based on pot odds alone.
Finally, reverse implied odds are the exact opposite of implied odds, as they refer to the likelihood of losing extra bets on later streets if you stay in the hand. It’s worth mentioning that you will face entirely different odds when you play video poker, so it’s worthwhile to research it separately if that’s your game.
Now, let’s take a look at each of these key concepts and explain it in a little more detail and with some examples.
Direct Poker Odds Explained
If you have ever played poker at a live table, you surely heard players discussing how many “outs” they had and what their odds were to hit their straight or flush.
These numbers are covered by the concept of direct odds, which refer to the likelihood of hitting cards on turn or river that can improve your poker hand.
For example, whenever you have a flush draw, a straight draw, or another drawing hand, you can calculate the likelihood of the cards you need to make the hand hitting the turn or the river.
Here is a simple example:
Playing in a $1/$2 game, you call a raise to $10 with 9♠8♠ and the dealer puts out a flop of K♦7♠6♠.
While you don’t have much of a hand right now, your cards have a ton of potential. You have what’s known as an open-ended straight flush draw, the best draw in all of Texas Hold’em Poker.
This hand can improve in so many ways that, if you were playing against a strong hand like AA, you would be a slight favorite to win with 56% odds of improving.
It is a rare scenario that a drawing hand is a favorite against a strong made hand in Texas Hold’em, but this is one of those scenarios.
Now, you may be wondering how we know the hand is a favorite, and that’s a very good question.
The easy answer is that you can get the odds from a Texas Hold’em odds calculator, which is a tool that can do the calculations for you, but you can also do the calculations yourself.
In order to do that, you must first learn more about poker outs.
Counting Your Outs in Poker
In order to calculate your direct odds, you must first know how many outs you have to improve into whatever hand you are hoping to make.
An out is any card that improves your hand in a meaningful way. Depending on the situation, some cards may not count as “clean outs.”
In the example we used above, you were holding an open-ended straight flush draw, a hand that has a total of 15 outs.
On the board of K♦7♠6♠, your 9♠8♠ has 15 outs that can improve your hand into a straight or a flush. There are nine remaining spades in the deck as well as three non-spade Tens and three non-spade Fives, for a total of 15 cards.
As you can see, counting your outs in poker is quite simple, and all you need to do is literally count the cards that can help improve your hand.
In order to do that, you will have to have a good grasp of the poker hand rankings and the way poker hands are built, but this is a skill that takes most players a short time to master.
Yet, once you have counted your outs, there is still the process of actually calculating your poker odds based on that number, and this is where the “rule of four and two” comes into play.
Using the Rule of Two and Four to Calculate Poker Odds
Using a poker odds calculator is the easy way to calculate your poker odds, but you won’t be able to do that in real time while playing poker. What’s even more, using such tools while playing is considered cheating by most live and online poker rooms these days.
For that reason, you need to learn how to calculate the odds yourself. Fortunately, there is an easy way to do that using the rule of two and four.
The rule is quite simple. If you are calculating the odds with two cards to come (on the flop), multiply the number of outs by four. If you are calculating the odds with one card to come (on the turn), multiply the number of outs by two.
For example, if you have a naked flush draw, a quick odds count will tell you there are nine cards that can help your hand. Multiplying this number by four will give you 36, which would be the odds of making the flush.
If you put this hand into a poker odds calculator, the exact number will be closer to 35%, but still very close to the one you got using the rule of two and four in just seconds.
One caveat of this rule is that as the number of outs goes up, the actual odds start to deviate from the number you get more and more.
For more explanation on this and how you can get even more accurate calculations, consult our guide to poker outs.
Poker Odds for Different Out Counts
Using the rule of two and four or a poker odds calculator are both great ways to learn your odds. However, you can also learn the odds for different out counts by heart and always know what they are without having to do any calculations.
Here is a look at the flop and turn odds for the most common out counts in Texas Hold’em:
| Number of Outs | Flop Odds | Turn Odds |
| 1 | 4.26% | 2.17% |
| 2 | 8.42% | 4.26% |
| 3 | 12.49% | 6.38% |
| 4 | 16.47% | 8.51% |
| 5 | 20.35% | 10.64% |
| 6 | 24.14% | 12.77% |
| 7 | 27.84% | 14.89% |
| 8 | 31.45% | 17.02% |
| 9 | 34.97% | 19.15% |
| 10 | 38.39% | 21.28% |
| 11 | 41.72% | 23.40% |
| 12 | 44.96% | 25.53% |
| 13 | 48.10% | 27.66% |
| 14 | 51.16% | 29.79% |
| 15 | 54.12% | 31.91% |
| 16 | 56.98% | 34.04% |
| 17 | 59.76% | 36.17% |
| 18 | 62.44% | 38.30% |
| 19 | 65.03% | 40.43% |
| 20 | 67.53% | 42.55% |
| 21 | 69.94% | 44.68% |
Pot Odds Explained
Pot odds are the ratio between the size of the bet you are facing and the size of the pot. This mathematical concept allows you to decide whether your call is profitable or not together with the direct odds.
Poker players like to talk about the “price” they are getting, and this actually refers to the pot odds they have.
Pot odds are easy to calculate by dividing the size of the bet you are facing with the size of the entire pot after you make the call.
For example, imagine facing a $15 flop bet into a $30 pot in your local poker game. To calculate your pot odds, imagine making the call first and what the size of the pot will be after you make this call.
In this case, the pot will be $60, and the bet size is $15. Simply dividing 15/60 and you get 0.25, which translates to 25%. These are your pot odds!
Once you know your pot odds, you know what amount of equity (direct odds) you need to make a profitable call.
In the example above, you would be making a profitable call if you believe you can win 25% of the time. For instance, if you have a flush draw, which has 35% equity, your call would be clearly profitable.
On the other hand, if all you have was a small pocket pair, and you believed you needed to improve to a set, then the call would not be profitable, as you would not have the 25% equity you need.
Here is a look at some common bet sizes in poker and the equity you need to make profitable calls against them:
| Bet Size: | Required Equity: |
| One Quarter Pot (25%) | 16% Equity |
| One Third Pot (33%) | 20% Equity |
| One Half Pot (50%) | 25% Equity |
| Two Thirds Pot (66%) | 28% Equity |
| Three Quarters Pot (75%) | 30% Equity |
| Full Pot (100%) | 33% Equity |
| 2x Pot Overbet (200%) | 40% Equity |
Implied and Reverse Implied Odds Explained
Using direct odds and pot odds allows you to quickly calculate the equity you have in a pot and the equity you need to have to pay off a certain bet.
This is all you need until the moment you get into a spot where the call is not profitable using these metrics.
For example, imagine facing a 66% pot size bet on a board where all you have is a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.
According to pot odds, you need 28% equity to make the call, but your three outs only give you about 13% if you get to the river. The math does not justify making this call!
This is where the concept of implied odds comes into play. As their name suggests, implied odds are related to the money you stand to win on later betting streets if you make the call now.
The implications of calling now and making a straight on the turn can be quite huge. Assuming your opponent’s poker range is strong, you will often be able to win a lot of money when you do make your straight.
If you can win enough in those rare scenarios, then you may be able to justify calling even despite the pot odds in the hopes of winning big when you do spike your hand.
Implied odds come into play especially when the stacks are deep in relation to the pot size, and when your draws are well concealed.
Contrary to implied odds, reverse implied odds remind us of the notion that we can also lose more money on later streets if we make our hand.
For example, on a board of K♠Q♠J♣, calling even a small bet with a Nine is often a very bad idea. The times you do make our straight with the Ten, you will often be up against a higher straight with the Ace, or you will get no action.
When considering your draws, make sure to take such scenarios into account and remember that you may have to face costly future bets with your hand.
Odds of Getting Dealt Poker Hands
Now that we have covered the most important poker odds that you need to calculate in your games, let’s take a look at some poker trivia and the odds of getting dealt certain starting hands in the first place.
This table takes a look at some of the most popular poker combos and types of hands and tells you the probability of getting dealt these hands:
| Poker Hand: | Odds of Getting it Dealt: |
| Pocket Aces (or any pocket pair) | 1:220 |
| AKs (or any suited combo) | 1:331 |
| AK (or any offsuit combo) | 1:82 |
| Big Pocket Pair (TT+) | 1:43 |
| Suited Broadway Cards | 1:32 |
| Suited Connectors | 1:25 |
| A Pocket Pair | 1:16 |
Always Remember the Odds
Poker odds are at the very center of every decision you make at the poker table, and knowing how to calculate and manipulate them is essential for any successful poker player.
If you want to take your poker game to the next level and get a better understanding of how poker works, make sure to memorize the poker odds and learn how to calculate them on the spot.
The knowledge contained in this guide takes no more than a few hours to learn, and it will allow you to make a lifetime of good decisions at any poker tables you find yourself playing at.
