The Lines Don’t Lie

by , Mar 23, 2007 | 4:44 am

I’ve been much better about keeping track of my bankroll this year, thanks to — even though, thus far, it hasn’t been a winning year. Kinda interesting.

Just tonight/last night … I had a pretty good session (ended up +$485 in $.50/$1 NLH) … though half of that came from the last hand of the night, where Fawcett flopped a mini-monster … which he played a little weakly trying to trap me … which fueled my bluff-draw, and in the end let me hit the nuts with a gutshot. Cool. Even cooler was getting Fawcett to push all-in once I got there. Anyhow … have a looksie at my current bankroll graph:


Read into it whatever you want. And while these are important figures for me to keep track of, here’s what I think is the more telling graph:

Either you know something or you don’t — there is no in-between when it comes to knowing. And I think this map of my average earnings per session reveals something I hadn’t come to hard-and-provable grips with … and that is that I am pretty much just a break-even player. Semi-bitter pill to swallow, but hey, there’s no room in winning poker for delusions. Here is some other relevant computer-generated analysis of my 2007 play, as logged by Pokercharts. Kinda funny:

I came out $485.00 ahead during my last session, 7h 0m of $.50-1 No Limit Hold ‘Em at Danang. From 2007-01-02 to 2007-03-23 I have mostly played Hold ‘Em (97% of the time), and after that Other (3% of the time). During this period the Dow posted a 2.0100000000002 (0.02%) loss whereas I am down $1371 (-12.96%). I am most successful playing Other ($-60 overall), and least successful playing Hold ‘Em ($-1,311 overall). In terms of venues, I play best at Danang ($1,575 overall) and worst at Ultimate Bet ($-3,008 overall). I have been averaging 9h 22m of poker a week, or 8.36% of my waking hours (assuming I sleep eight a night).

UPDATE: At least one reader requested a less meaningful more detailed recap of the last BF home game session. So in a nutshell …

Tim … -900
Sang … +500
Dan … +485
Fawcett … happy drinker, but 4 cards eventually lodged in the ceiling molding
Celeste … + a couple/triple hundy
Todd … busted nut early, called it a night
Thum … no show (uncool)
Capasso … no show (but googled by “friend” of Fawcett)
Sommer … won a little
Aaron … issued bench press challenge to Fawcett
Shane … non-factor + tequila
9-2 … got played and shown no fewer than 142 times.
Dinner … chips and twinkies

4 Comments to “The Lines Don’t Lie”

  1. The Big Randy

    not to bust the bubble, but if your average earnings stay below zero, how are you are break-even player? Doesn’t that suggest that you are a consistently losing player? Not trying to throw you under the bus, IJS.

  2. DanM

    It’s the flatness of the line that I am looking at. If I were a winning player, it would be heading upward. If I were a losing player, there would be a noticeable downward trajectory. (Right?)

    By the way, the early part of the graph is skewed because I had a few sessions lumped together before I started keeping more detailed track.

  3. Fawcett

    Can’t believe I went and got you Twinkies only to have you throw me under the bus. I checked the turn so you could hang yourself with a bluff when your 4 outer didn’t come in. I certainly shouldn’t have pushed but I was drinky/steamy/steamy/drinky knowing the Jack helped you….now I am glad I launched the deck of cards into a low orbit. BTW how awesome was “the Sang” all night?

  4. DanM

    Yep, that was my plan … to bluff at you. (Or fold to your bet on the turn.)