Musings on the WSOP from a closer…

by , Jun 19, 2007 | 2:17 pm

DALLAS–It’s effectively Super Bowl week for me. While I will be there for the main event as well, this week marks our second annual pilgrimage to the WSOP (and fourth poker adventure). Tiny B Tulsa and Gentle Shane are heading out tomorrow, and I will be there by Thursday morning. All of us (assuming Shane can find a backer) plan on rolling the dice in Thursday’s $1,500 No Limit Uberdonkfest.

We’re all still basically dead money, though, collectively, we have been playing poker and tournament poker for several years, and each of us has made a final table in an event with a buy-in of $500 or more. Also, we’ve all played in the WSOP before, and for some of us, this will be at least our fourth event.

Last year, we had several batfaces in the $2,500 NL event (won by Max Pescatori), and our own Zac “Son of Sue” Ballenger cashed fairly deep, finishing 50th out of 1200 (and he probably would have gone deeper if he hadn’t given most of his chips to Scott Fischman).

This year, though we won’t have our tourney ace Son of S. in tow, I think we have another real good chance to send someone deep. The following are my off-the-top-of-my-head odds on how we’ll do:

Make it through Day 1: Only ten percent of the field will survive Day 1. If I were to average what I think each of our individual chances are to survive Day 1, it’s probably somewhere between 7 and 8 to 1. Mathematically, I think that means we have about a 66% chance of someone from our group surviving Day 1.

Make it to final table: Somewhere around 15 to 1.

Final 3: 40 to 1

Bracelet: 100 to 1.

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