Eff the Tea Party … my dream is someday for a P-Party … because really, we all know it, Poker is more than just a game … it’s a belief system, a religion if you will … an outlook on life and cards that transcends everything we do. And we all remember from our days playing Party Poker (with accounts funded by Netteller) that this game we play, this recurring exchange of virtual currency with two cards yet to come, is the KEY to a bustling economy and/or world peace!

76% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats say they gamble, either in Texas or another state.

OK, ok … before I get ahead of myself and any poker relevancy, there’s a singular issue at hand in Texas right now … and it’s about money, civil rights, and freedom — all part of a message that seems to resonate with an electorate that may or may not be currently stockpiling guns. But first they need some data to show what we all have known to be true deep down inside. Thus, pro-gambling reformers in Texas are championing a new study that reveals Texans — GOP primary voters in particular — overwhelmingly support whatever it is that might-could allow for better game selection closer to home.

Here’s the report. (More about the data and methodology here.) And below is a summary of the semi-scientific study that essentially challenges GOP lawmakers who might be thinking about roadblocks to go ahead … press your luck and fall on the side of ignoring the will and interest of an engaged supermajority.

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PresidentTracker: One of the world’s 100 Most Influential People of 2009 at the WSOP in 2011.
(Photo: PokerListings)

Plenty of talk about polls as we head into the homestretch of our 2012 US Presidential election. Who’s up, who’s down, who asked what and margin-of-error how? Just remember: no matter where you are on the political spectrum, in the horserace journalism of it all, the mainstream media are primary beneficiaries of a tight race. At least that’s what I keep telling myself after making some rather significant wagers on essentially a “gut” feeling that the national economy was improving and no way more than 43 percent of Americans would vote for a guy who strapped his dog to the roof of a car.

But proper analysis is apparently not so simple.

No wonder so many pundits are looking to a former online poker semi-pro to tell us who’s the best bet for president.

Nate Silver, 34, is author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t … and he’s all the rage among the politerati these days. His book apparently brings multi-level thinking taught by hand histories into the political sphere. And in doing so, Silver puts online poker on the same level as other imperfect but predictive sciences such as hurricane tracking and counterterrorism. (And nobody seems to be laughing at the comparisons!)

The Signal and the Noise came out the chute in September on the New York Times bestseller list, where it’s currently #15 among all non-fiction books. And at the time of this posting, the book ranked #1 on Amazon for books about math, #1 for technology, and #2 for politics and social sciences.

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John T. Montford

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OP-ED

Our state was founded by men and women who exhibited fierce independence and self-determination. These values are manifested in our limited approach to state government and the belief that if you have a dream or an idea, Texas’ friendly business climate will provide the fertile ground to grow it. Over the past few years, Texas has been the national leader in job growth and economic development. Folks are flocking to Texas from other states with their dreams in tow. Unfortunately, there is one issue where we’re being outsmarted by our neighbors.

Anyone who has read the Austin American-Statesman lately knows illegal gaming has become a big industry in Texas. We have closed our eyes and allowed illegal “eight-liners” to run rampant across Texas – some within just a few miles of our Capitol. The issue is not whether Texans are gambling — they are — but whether we will reap the economic benefits of it.

Expanded gaming is by no means a cure-all fix, and no one is proposing a casino on every corner, but it’s a private enterprise with proven economic results without the need for government subsidies or handouts.

Each year our fellow Texans spend more than $2.5 billion in strategically placed, just-across-the-border gaming facilities in Oklahoma, Louisiana and New Mexico. That includes $1 billion in Oklahoma, alone. Simply put, Texans are creating jobs and paying for schools, firefighters and other infrastructure needs across our borders. Texas is getting fleeced by our neighbors. I firmly believe that bringing back the billions of dollars that are leaving Texas and going to our neighbor states is a service to our state. The Legislature should let us vote to stop it.

I’m not alone in this belief. Poll after poll shows that an overwhelming majority of Texas voters, regardless of political party or geographic region, believe that Texans are smart enough to decide this issue. For those who believe that gambling is morally wrong, I respectfully ask: Doesn’t it make more sense to regulate an activity that good Texans are already doing in huge numbers?

Our willful blindness on this issue has also devastated the homegrown Texas horse industry. Texas should be the national epicenter of ranching and agriculture but the thoroughbred and quarter horse breeders have all but left the state for greener pastures in states where purses are enhanced with gaming proceeds. We can’t even play Texas Hold ’em at our racetracks, while a once proud part of our ranching and agricultural heritage crumbles.

The potential benefits to our economy are huge. Depending on the specifics, expanded gaming could create 75,000 permanent jobs in 40 different sectors of the economy, and it would bring several billion dollars in economic development to Texas. Gaming can be a profitable industry no different than manufacturing, agriculture, energy or technology, that will allow Texas to expand its tax base and contribute toward our needs — whether it is schools, water resources or property tax relief. Expanded gaming is by no means a cure-all fix, and no one is proposing a casino on every corner, but it’s a private enterprise with proven economic results without the need for government subsidies or handouts.

The numbers appeal to the part of me that spent many sleepless nights at the Capitol wrangling and squeezing the state budget for every last dollar and wondering how to grow our economy without raising taxes. But guess what? The gaming interests in our neighboring states are shrewd. They have gone to financial extremes to protect their Texas revenue stream. Since 2008, gaming interests in neighboring states (mostly Oklahoma) have poured about $2 million in political contributions into Texas trying to influence our state politics. They will stop at nothing to defeat the issue at the ballot box.

Texans are smart enough to decide this issue in a statewide referendum and the Legislature has the power to make that happen. For me, this issue comes down to a pretty simple question: Are you for Texas, or are you for Oklahoma?

It’s time to Let Texans Decide.

John T. Montford is a former marine, district attorney, state senator, and chancellor to Texas Tech University. This op-ed originally appeared in the Austin American-Statesmen.

It has been a busy few weeks in the poker community, to be sure. With the Full Tilt Poker sale to PokerStars, the continued growth of the #Fight4Poker daily action plan, and growing momentum of poker legislation in Congress, we can all see the impact of our efforts.

I urge everyone to keep it up. The work we do at the grassroots is what keeps the pressure on Capitol Hill. This month, let’s all try to meet with our elected officials (or at least their staffs). They are home for the August recess and will be through September 7th, so it is a great time to make the visit. PPA Director of Grassroots and External Affairs Drew Lesofski sent you a letter on this important grassroots initiative last week (here), so I hope you have been giving it some serious thought.

Your congressman and both of your senators are home meeting with constituents, hosting town hall meetings, and attending local community events. This is a great opportunity for all of us to meet face-to-face with our lawmakers to discuss the importance of passing federal online poker legislation this year. It is also a great opportunity to express support for the game itself, be it online, bricks-and-mortar, home games, etc.

PPA has made scheduling meetings easy. Simply click here to find your elected representatives’ office phone numbers, addresses, and other information. When you call to set up your appointment, simply ask to speak with the lawmaker’s scheduler and ask to schedule a face to face meeting in the district office.

PPA has made meeting preparation easy as well. Simply click here for talking points, a summary of legislation in Congress (H.R. 2366, Rep. Barton’s Online Poker Act), and the recent letter from the Fraternal Order of Police to Congress in support of licensing and regulating online poker. You can print them in either color or in black and white. With that, all you will have to do is tell your lawmakers that you support online poker and that they should too. It will not be a debate. Rather, they will seek to hear you out as a constituent.

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Have you been thinking about buying an iPad? Do you want to help the PPA in its mission to restore your Internet poker freedoms? Well, now is your chance to kill two birds with one stone, by taking this new poker survey. Working with U.S. Gaming Survey, the PPA has created a poker specific survey to help us better understand the playing community and in turn help us better advocate for your interests in Washington DC. Once you’ve fully completed the survey, your name will be entered into a drawing for a brand new Apple iPad2. The survey is completely anonymous, and your personal information will not be shared with anyone. Click on the button below to begin the survey and help the PPA help you! The survey will remain open until December 30th noon EST. The iPad2 prize winner will be announced on January 3rd, 2012.

Phil Ivey recently dropped off ESPN’s admittedly subjective player rankings, The Nuts. ESPN’s was the last of such lists to still include the self-exiled Full Tilt Pro in their Top 10. (Homers.)

I found this out via PartTime Poker, which seems to be doing a pretty cool monthly bit over there — breaking down player standings across four different ranking systems, each with their own calculation biases and level of subjectivity in determining the best poker players in the world.

Perhaps surprisingly, I still recognize most at least half of the 21 names comprising the four different Top 10s … but I’ll bet the rest of the world surely doesn’t. There’s a reason, after all, Jason Mercier doesn’t even have a Q-score.

So with subjectivity in mind … best player, winningest player, field strength, skill measurement, tournament luck, run-good ratios, late position likability, backer’s credit score …

Poker is back in the state-level Supreme Courts … this time in South Carolina, with five appointed justices set to decide if playing Texas Hold’em in a private residence is a crime.

The decision, which will likely reverberate throughout the Carolina underground and beyond, will rely heavily on matters of skill and chance involved in poker, as gamecock law calls for a “dominate factor test” to determine whether or not a game violates South Carolina gambling statutes. Like we saw in Kentucky and Washington, the SC SC will just be hearing arguments tomorrow, for about 30 minutes from both sides combined, and not issuing a ruling for a few months. But when they do … well read below for what’s at stake beyond a few misdemeanor convictions.

In the meantime … we know there’s skill in poker, but how much is often debatable. Where on the continuum do you draw the lines for these different “games”?

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Jess, Huff, and I had a small-group Poker Beat pow-wow on Sunday, where one of the topics was who we like for the Hall of Fame in 2010. I probably shoulda looked at the actual ballot before the show. Knew there were some changes but didn’t understand exactly what was different …

The revised 2010 scoring system gives each of the 33 voters 10 points … to be designated however seems fitting among up to 3 nominees. The two highest point totals get inducted. Definitely like the improvements, but have sent an email seeking clarification on how the mysterious “governing council” Seth and Alan taking the interns out for beers might handle ties. Also curious how someone like Henry Orenstein would ever get considered in the future.

Rules Are Official, Mock Ballot Is Not

Below are rules from the official ballots, which went out Friday to the 16 living PHOF members and 17 on the “Blue Ribbon Media Voting Panel”. Take a look … (interesting to me the stress put on “this year”) … then cast your own Pokerati Mock Hall of Fame ballot to see how you like the new system, and where we line up with final results.

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History of the World (Series of Poker)

Yep, it’s now time for the WSOP main event numbers game … if entry numbers drop significantly, my ghad what a disaster … whoa is poker! A small drop, as we saw last year, no worries, Team WSOP can spin it accordingly … If they grow slightly, cool, we are right on track since the UIGEA … see, all is fine in the poker world. If they grow TREMENDOUSLY and come anywhere near Jamie Gold-year numbers, holy fugk, the entire world is a better place, starvation has been eliminated, and Osama bin Laden has been captured!

I’m going with “slight increase” … but wouldn’t be surprised to see “slight decrease” or even “slightly bigger than expected increase”. The WSOP’s official fan page on Facebook ran a poll — How many people will you have to beat to win the 2010 WSOP Main Event? — and here were the results:

under 5,000 – 5%
5,000-6,000 – 5%
6,001-7,000 – 25%
7,001-8,000 – 29%
over 8,000 – 36%

Guaranteed: unless we cross the 8k barrier, a super-majority will be wrong.

Fact: They didn’t have these kinda off-base poll results back in the days of Friendster.

From Moss to Moneymaker:
The Early Decades

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Don’t quite know the details, but it happened again. Apparently two men entered yesterday’s ladies event at the Venetian Deep Stack series. And at least one of them went relatively deep.

Here’s what I was able to glean from Facebook:

Annie LePage Bleeeehhhh… A freakin guy who crashed the ladies event and was totally rude to all of us at the table had to be the one busting me. I am sooo Mad!

Stacey Nutini yea well i was pretty pissed too busting in 16th and there was still one guy in…..i think they’re complete frickin morons to participate. and when you ask them why, their reason is always the biggest bullshit you’ve ever heard in your life.

The day before the Venetian ladies event, the Las Vegas Sun ran a story (with awesome art, btw) about the men who played in the WSOP ladies event. They’ve got a poll asking whether or not men should be allowed to play. Currently 40 percent say yes, and 59 percent say no.

OK, so it’s settled: the no’s have it … we can move on now, right? No?

Anyone got an over/under on how long before ladies events are eradicated completely? Because I sure can’t see — based on the above split alone — why this trend would eventually subside … not until the minority gets their way.

I just voted for the Maven Awards. Not usually my bag to give out all my confirming email data (in a time-consuming way) that lets someone else plausibly sell or profit from my internet ID. In fact, many know I consciously chose not to vote for the WSOP-TOC because I couldn’t help but see that as an email harvesting operation for WSOP.com, done in a way that trivializes the value of sites like Pokerati when it comes to someday sending players to the WSOP for online poker play.

(Also, by standing on such principles, I didn’t have to tell Tom he had a more promising future in selling pants than trying to qualify for the TOC.)

However, because the Maven Awards presumably isn’t looking to open an online poker room in the near future, and because, frankly, I was feeling bad for women in poker after the punk-bitch episodes in this year’s WSOP-Ladies event … I decided to give up my IP address to support the cause … somebody’s cause … in a way that seems like a good step toward someday negating the need for a separate Women in Poker Hall of Fame.

Much to my plausibly noble delight, it turns out The Maven Awards has an anonymous voting option that still does a decent job of preventing blatant ballot stuffing. (I tried; would require too much work for me to vote twice.)

I’m not sure when their voting deadline is, but it’s gotta be soon … so I encourage you to get your votes in, too, by voting here. Below are whom I voted for in each of the 14 categories and why:

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Check it out … the Fort Worth Star-Telegram has a story on the possibility of legalizing online poker in 2010. (Nice quotes, Lavigne.)

Nothing earth-shattering in the story … just the non-poker populace continuing to be educated on the basics of our issues at stake. And the mainstream media letting said populace know that indeed, these issues will be dealt with in some capacity this year. Also interesting — the ST’s running a poll with that article, looking for essentially a thumbs-up-thumbs-down referendum on the matter of online poker. Our side is in the lead (as usual), but a stronger than usual 39 percent have voted so far to say that instead of legalizing and taxing online poker, the government should crack down.

Also in the Star-Telegram: Police are cracking down on cock fights.

That’s what we wanna know … do you think this UIGEA enforcement deadline is gonna pass with out much ado? Efforts to delay this by a year seems to be the current push … though that’s essentially running it through the executive branch … a lotta different interests in play there. And, of course, Congress is still in session … do you see any chance that anyone can close the deal through legislative means? Barney?

Here’s the PPA ED John Pappas giving a little more insight on what this date means to the folks in Washington DC, and what the PPA is doing to fight it. But damn, with the clock having been called, will it be enough?

Don’t forget to vote — right over there, on your right. I mean sheeyot, if you can’t click a button a couple inches away … then maybe we’re due to get exactly what we deserve?

Look for tells on Pappas’ face for any reads on how he might really see the situation.

photo: WSOP.com

That’s what we wanna know … after Saturday/Sunday’s marathon 9->2 session … how long do you think the heads-up battle between Darvin Moon and Joe Cada will go?

They’re currently in Level 39, with blinds at 500k/1000k + 150k.

Moon has almost the same number of chips he started with, 58,850,000, while Cada, who started with just 13,215,000, now has all the rest — 135,950,000.

What they’re fighting for, essentially: $3.36 million in cash, and then everything else that goes with being WSOP champ.

NOTE: In our previous unscientific poll, Moon got the second-most votes … Cada fourth-most.

The record for WSOP heads-up battles is 7 hours 10 minutes, set by Chip Reese vs. Andy Bloch in 2006. Before that it was 7 hours, in the 1983 main event … where after Doyle Brunson busted out in 3rd on a semi-bluff, an unknown from Michigan, Tom McEvoy, beat Rod Peate for $580,000:

BTW, for a fun historical perspective, watch the start of the television coverage of the 1983 final table here.

Congratulations to the Hendon Mob, who were picked by Pokerati readers as the clear favorite when it comes to looking up a player’s stats.

The Mob got nearly half the votes. CardPlayer got roughly half the remaining half. And an interesting 3rd-place finisher: PokerPages … which as we recently learned is going out of business.

Word on the electronic street is that at least two entities that didn’t make a strong showing in Pokerati’s unscientific poll are beginning the process of trying to buy PP’s player database at a fire-sale price.

Meanwhile, be sure to check out our new poll — sidebar, toppish-right — wondering: How many November Niner names do you know?